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High oil prices sound the rally: petroleum currency "the return of the king"

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The law is used to break.

As early as two years ago, when the price of oil going up and down was unpredictable, crude oil traders would predict the price of the oil through the trend of the Canadian dollar with leading indicators. Industry estimates show that the correlation between WTI crude oil futures prices and the USD / CAD settlement price is as high as -0.93.

However, traders found that this correlation expired in the second half of 2017. Until recently, after the crude oil price rebounded sharply, the correlation between oil and the Canadian dollar returned to a strong one.

Oil money will be separated for a long time

Boosted by the sharp rise in oil prices, the correlation between the international crude oil market and the currency exchange rates of major global oil producers, which was weakened last year, will begin to reconnect.

Canada is the seventh largest exporter of crude oil in the world and one of the most important sources of merchandise imports in the United States. Export trade contributes a lot to GDP. Its legal currency, the Canadian dollar, is included in the category of "oil currency."

According to authoritative statistics, from December 21, 2011 to 2016, the correlation between the WTI crude oil futures price and the USD / CAD settlement price was as high as -0.93.

"Because traditional indicators of crude oil supply and demand changes may be relatively lagging, such as Canadian export data and Chinese import data, and Canadian economic activity is the first to reflect changes in global crude oil supply and demand, the trend of the Canadian dollar has a high reference for determining crude oil prices. Value. "Cheng Xiaoyong, director of Baocheng Futures Finance Institute said.

However, this correlation between the Canadian dollar and crude oil broke in the second half of 2017. In September 2017, international oil prices suddenly rose sharply, while the Canadian dollar continued to fall, and the correlation coefficient with oil prices fell to historical lows.

"The Canadian dollar is the so-called 'petroleum currency'. It has always been in the same direction as the rise and fall of oil prices. Crude oil is one of Canada's main export commodities. But after the Bank of Canada raised interest rates in July and September last year, Mobility showed a reverse relationship in the second half of last year. "Industry sources said.

As the Canadian dollar ’s “petroleum currency” aura fades, the effect of predicting the Canadian dollar ’s exchange rate based on oil prices has also been compromised as the United States gradually became a net oil exporter.

"The linkage between oil prices, the U.S. dollar and the Canadian dollar has become more complex," said Karl Schamotta, global market strategy director at Cambridge Global Payments.

Until this year, this correlation has returned strongly. For example, from June 22 to August 3, the WTI crude oil price rose 4.38%; during the same period, the US dollar against the Canadian dollar fell 1.61%, which means that the Canadian dollar has appreciated against the US dollar.

Mark Chandler, head of Canadian fixed income and currency markets strategy at RBC Capital Markets, said: Oil prices need to rise above $ 70 a barrel to drive the Canadian dollar exchange rate.

Natalie Rickard, a foreign exchange strategist at BNP Paribas, said the correlation between the positions of the Norwegian krone and the Canadian dollar and the price of oil is increasing. At a high of $ 80 per barrel, traditional oil currencies were more sensitive to fluctuations in oil prices.

According to the United States Commodity Futures Commission (CFTC) data, as of the week of July 31, speculative net long crude oil held by speculators increased by 2929 contracts to 613,400 contracts, indicating that investors are willing to be bullish on crude oil. At the same time, the speculative net shorts of Canadian dollars held by speculators decreased by 12,942 contracts to 31,569 contracts, indicating that investors' willingness to be short on Canadian dollars has cooled.

Natalie Rickard pointed out that higher oil prices will have a double benefit for the Canadian dollar: accelerating export growth, making the central bank's monetary policy more "hawkish" when inflation is rising rapidly.

However, the main logic has recently deviated. On August 8, the British "Financial Times" reported that Saudi Arabia began to sell Canadian assets. Two people familiar with the matter said that the Saudi central bank and the state pension fund have issued instructions to their overseas asset managers to sell Canadian stocks, bonds and cash reserves at no cost.

One of them said that despite the relatively small percentage of Canadian assets invested by Saudi Arabia, the sell-off since last Tuesday has undoubtedly sent a strong signal. Third-party asset managers authorized by the Saudi Fund are expected to invest more than $ 100 billion in global markets.

Affected by this news, the US dollar / Canadian dollar rose 30 points in the short-term and broke through the 1.31 mark; oil prices expanded and WTI crude oil futures fell 1.4% to 68.19 US dollars / barrel.

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